Why Your Betting Winning Percentage Doesn’t Matter (sort of)

Why Your Betting Winning Percentage Doesn’t Matter (sort of)

The most important formula in risk taking is the formula for expected value. It is simply defined as

winning percentage * average winner – losing percentage * average loser

It is obvious to some and unknown to others, but having positive expectancy is the single most important thing in gambling, investing, risk taking, and heck… life itself.

This formula alone can keep you in the black and drastically improve your results in life (in a lot of aspects).

What the hell is positive expectancy? Well, in short, it is the expected value you should expect to earn if you were to place a wager with these characteristics (win rate, payoffs, etc.) a repeated number of times. You may not win every bet, but after a large number of positive expectancy bets you *should* converge to the positive expectation. This is one of the only things risk takers can control!

However, what most do not realize is that a winning percentage less than 50% can still result in positive expectancy!! Let’s run through some simple examples so you can see and next time you consider taking a risk ask yourself do I have positive expectancy or am I doomed from the start?

Finally, the best way to use expected value is to determine – if limited capital – which bets should be placed or prioritized. In theory, the one with the highest positive expected value should be prioritized first.

 

Example 1: 67% * 200 – 33% * 100 = $100

Example 2: 55% * 300 – 45% * 100 = $120

Example 3: 45% * 500 – 55% * 100 =  $170

 

There is a relationship between payoff size, win rate, and the number of bets you can place with similar characteristics. For more information please check out the FREE crash course or gamble on yourself and invest in the full Basics to Calculated Risk Taking Course.

Thanks,

DB

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Data is shaping our world and good teams (and bettors) are reeping the benefits of being early adopters. Here are some sample data points that may help you improve your odds
    • The Lakers are 27-10 ATS when their season FT% is more than 10% better than their opponents

    • Teams in the top ten for rushing yards per game playing a team in the bottom ten for rushing yards against are 18-3 ATS when the spread is less than 7.

    • Teams facing a left-handed pitcher for the second consecutive game (in the same series) are 33-8 ATS in the last 41 games

    • The Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games against NFC West when the spread is between 3 and 10 points

    • Underdogs that rush for more than 100 yards per game and have a positive turnover differential are 77-42 ATS in the last 8 years.

    • The Under is 19-2 when a favorite in the top 10 percentile of W-L record plays a team averaging more than 125 rush yards per game and 200 pass yards per game



    • Want to create and find your own stats like this? Want to get email and text alerts whenever a significant stat you saved is true for a current game? Check out the Bets2Make software. Ready to get these emailed to you? Sign up for the FREE alerts now.

Data Examples

  • The Lakers are 27-10 ATS when their season FT% is more than 10% better than their opponents

  • Teams in the top ten for rushing yards per game playing a team in the bottom ten for rushing yards against are 18-3 ATS when the spread is less than 7.

  • Teams facing a left-handed pitcher for the second consecutive game (in the same series) are 33-8 ATS in the last 41 games

  • The Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games against NFC West when the spread is between 3 and 10 points

  • Underdogs that rush for more than 100 yards per game and have a positive turnover differential are 77-42 ATS in the last 8 years.

  • The Over is 24-7 in the last 31 games when two teams in the bottom ten for scoring defense meet after week 7